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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-11-10T20:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-11-10T20:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27666/-1
CME Note: Faint and wide CME seen to the west in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and after a data gap in STEREO A COR2 in difference imagery. There appears to be a shock and bulk portion to this CME, with the shock exhibiting more of a dimpled front, possibly due to an emerging feature to the NW overlapping the upper left-hand portion of the CME. This doesn't appear to impact the trailing front or "bulk" portion of the CME. The source of this CME appears to be an eruption in the southwest quadrant of the Earth-facing disk near Active Regions 13484, 13477, and newly numbered AR 13485. Noticeable moving/opening field lines are seen in SDO/AIA 193, 211, and GOES SUVI 284 starting around 2023-11-10T18:34Z. Dimming is also visible in SDO/AIA 211 starting around 2023-11-10T19:29Z with wide and brief potential post-eruptive arcades visible in SDO/AIA 193 starting around 2023-11-10T21:00Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-15T20:01Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 25.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2023 Nov 12 1247 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 31112
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 12 Nov 2023, 1247UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) 
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) 
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet 
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Nov 2023  10CM FLUX: 136 / AP: 014 
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Nov 2023  10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 014 
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Nov 2023  10CM FLUX: 124 / AP: 010

...

Coronal mass ejections: [...] Further analysis of the CME seen in LASCO C2 data at 20:00 UTC on November 10, shows a possible glancing blow on November 15.


----------------------------------------------------------------------

:Issued: 2023 Nov 11 1240 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)                       #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU315
UGEOA 30512 31111 1240/ 9930/
11112 21112 30112
99999
PLAIN
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Nov 2023  10CM FLUX: 149 / AP: 007 
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Nov 2023  10CM FLUX: 144 / AP: 014 
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Nov 2023  10CM FLUX: 140 / AP: 011


Coronal mass ejections: A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), was detected at 20:00 UTC on November 10, in LASCO C2 data. The CME is associated with an eruption, observed at 19:07 UTC on November 10, in SDO/AIA 193 in the south-west quadrant of the visible solar disk. This was associated with a C2.3-flare, with peak time 20:07 UTC on November 10, associated with NOAA AR 3484 (beta). Another CME was observed at 09:10 UTC on November 11, LASCO C2 data. The CME is associated with an eruption, observed at 06:07 UTC on November 11, in SDO/AIA 304, 171 and 193 in the north-west quadrant of the solar disk. A glancing blow from both these CMEs may be possible. Further analysis is ongoing.

Lead Time: 54.75 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2023-11-13T13:16Z

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